计及贝叶斯纳什均衡的事故演习专家系统研究

Study of accidents exercises expert system with Bayesian Nash equilibrium

电力产业是国民经济发展的基础,是当今社会经济发展的重要驱动力量,其安全性直接影响到社会稳定和经济发展。其中,电网调度人员的专业化水平直接影响日常电网运行的稳定安全情况。近年来,各类电网事故频发,造成大量人员及经济财产的损失,但也在世界范围内推动了事故演习软件的开发。本文利用软件考核并提高调度人员处理电网异常情况的能力,通过对日常发生的事故案例的收集、查询、选择、再现的方式来模拟;通过精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡法则来评判调度人员解决事故的有效性,并对每一步决策进行最优诱导,最终给出演习报告。

The electric power production is the foundation of national economy development, and is an important driving force in modern soeioeconomic development, whose security directly affects the social stability and econom ic development. And the dispatching staff＇ s personal specialization level affects the stable security situation of the daily grid operation directly. In recent years, various types of electrical accidents in our country increased rapidly which results in a large number of casualties and huge economic losses, but on the other side promote the drill soft ware development around the world. This paper uses software to evaluate and improve the dispatchers＇ abilities in dealing with network anomalies, to simulate incidents by methods of collecting, inquiring, selecting and reprodu cing the routine cases; and to judge the effectiveness of the staff＇ s solution dealing with the incidents by perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium method, then to induce the best decisions after every step.