美国物质产品生产部门产能过剩变动趋势及其原因的经验分析

The Tendency and Causal Analysis of Excess Capacity in U.S. Material Production Industry

1990～2011年美国采掘业、制造业和公用事业的资本积累和产出不断增长,但这种增长的背后却存在越来越严重的产能过剩问题。为了解释这一现象,笔者提出二个假定并进行统计检验,结果表明三部门的产能过剩主要归因于生产部门整体资本有机构成、三部门自身的利润率和资本积累的变化。此分析结果对于区分中国产能过剩形成过程中政府和市场的不同作用有一定借鉴意义。

There are more and more serious overcapacity in the U.S. mining, manufacturing and utilities from 1990 to 2011, while capital accumulation and gross output are growing. To explain this phenomenon, two assumptions are made on the base of Marx＇s theory. Empirical data showed that overcapacity of the three sectors were mainly due to the rising organic composition of capital in the producing sector, three department＇s profitability and capital accumulation. The results have ref- erential significances for distinguishing the roles of government and market in the formation of overcapacity in China.