高关水库流域降雨变化趋势分析

Analysis on Rainfall Change Trend in Gaoguan Reservoir Watershed

预测水库流域未来降雨量变化趋势,可为水库兴利调度、资源开发利用提供科学的决策依据。采用Mann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法对高关水库流域未来降雨变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:未来一段时间内,高关水库流域降雨量呈下降趋势,流域未来1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成分可能很大,应采取必要对策和措施。

The prediction for the future precipitation change trend of reservoir watershed can provide scientific basis for the development and utilization of reservoir resources and reservoir scheduling. The parameters of Mann-Kendall rank correlation check method are used to analyze the future rainfall change trend of Gaoguan Reservoir basin. The results show that in the future period of time, the rainfall in Gaoguan Reservoir watershed would decrease, the randomness of the future rainfall changes in January and July may be large, and the necessary measures should be taken.