中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排路径研究

A Decomposition Model and Reduction Approaches for Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

能源及其引致的碳排放等相关问题已经成为影响人类社会发展全局和全球政治经济格局的重大战略问题.中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,面临着更严峻的能源挑战.节约能源、大幅度改善能源效率是我国应对能源和气侯变化挑战的一条极其重要且有效途径.本文综合考量了能源结构、能源强度、能源效率及经济增长等4个因素对碳排放的影响,基于因素分解模型,应用LMDI分解方法对中国一次能源利用的CO2排放及碳排放强度变化进行了研究,研究发现二氧化碳排放增加主要是由于经济增长、人口规模扩大引起的.在此基础上提出了碳减排的政策建议.

Energy consumption and carbon emissions has become a major strategic issues affecting the development of human society global and global political and economic pattern. China is the largest developing country in the world, is facing severe energy challenges. Energy conservation and significant improvement in energy efficiency are our response to the challen- ges of energy and climate change is an extremely important and effective way. This paper comprehensively studied the effects of the energy structure, energy intensity, energy efficiency and economic growth on carbon emissions. Based on factors decompo- sition model, the LMDI decomposition method was applied to research CO2 emissions and carbon intensity changes due to pri- mary energy use in China. The research found that the increase in carbon dioxide emissions was mainly caused by economic growth and population expansion. On this basis, we proposed some policy recommendations to reduce carbon emission.