基于灰色系统理论的我国R&D人力投入预测

Human Input Prediction for China's R&D Based on Grey System Theory

采用灰色预测模型对我国2001-2011年的R&D人员全时当量年度数据进行拟合和预测。研究表明:GM(1,1)模型较好的拟合和预测了我国R&D人员全时当量及其配置结构,未来一段时间(2012-2015年)我国R&D人力投入将会逐步加大,但R&D人力投入的配置结构将更加失衡。因此,未来我国R&D人力投入在加大力度的同时,更需要合理科学的配置。

This paper uses grey prediction model to conduct fitting and prediction for the annual data of R＆D personnel FFE of China during 2001-2011, and the research shows that GM（ 1,1 ） model better fits for and predicts China＇ s R＆D personnel FFE and its matched structure, that China＇ s R＆D personnel input will be enlarged in the future （2012-2015）, however, the matched structure for R＆D personnel input will be more unbalanced. Thus, in the future, scientific and reasonable allocation of China＇ s R＆D personnel is more needed while China＇ s R＆D personnel input is enhanced.