广西低温阴雨结束期分布特征及其预报

THE DISTRIBUTION FEATURE AND FORECASTING OF LOW-TEMPERATURE AND SUSTAINED-RAIN FINISHING PERIOD IN GUANGXI

用EOF方法分析了广西春播期低温阴雨结束期分布特征,结果表明,主要特征向量及其对应的时间系数很好地代表了低温阴雨结束期的空间分布和时间变化,前2个特征向量所表征的低温阴雨结束期分布型具有显著的2～3年及准4年的周期振荡。用主要分布型的时间系数构造均生函数模型,对广西低温阴雨结束期场作预报,1990～1999年试报表明,效果较好。

In this paper,the distribution feature of low-temperature and sustained-rain finishing period in Guangxi is analyzed by using EOF method, It shows that eigenvectors and its corresponding time-coefficient series well represent the time changes and the spatial distribution. The two main eigenvectors characterizing the distribution obviously have 2-3 years or quasi 4 years periodic oscillation. By using mean generating function model made of coefficient-time series of main distribution pattern, the result showed good for the experimental forecast.