溢油物理化学性质灰色模式的研究

Study on grey models of physical and chemical properties of spilled oils

应用灰色系统理论对海面溢油物理化学性质（蒸发率、溶解率、表面张力、黏度和密度）在风化过程中的变化进行研究，建立了溢油物理化学性质在风化过程中的预测模式ＧＭ（１，１）和ＧＭ（０，ｍ）．结果表明，在风化过程中，溢油物理化学性质的ＧＭ（１，１）和ＧＭ（０，ｍ）模式预测精度令人满意，皆符合统计学检验的要求；在风化过程中，溢油物理化学性质所具有的灰色相关性可用ＧＭ（０，ｍ）模式的灰色辨识参数来表征；在风化过程中，溢油的蒸发率和溶解率可分别用表面张力、黏度和密度作为预报因子。

By approaching variations of physical and chemical properties (i. e., rates of vapour and dissolution, surface tension, coefficient of viscosity and density) of spilled oils during weathering from application of grey system theory, GM(1, 1 ) and GM(0, m ) of forecasting models of the physical and chemical properties of spilled oils during weathering are established. The results show that: (1) the precision and accuracy of the forecasting of GM (1,1 ) and GM(0, m ) with statistical test are satisfactory, (2) the grey relativities of the physical and chemical properties of spilled oils during weathering can be expressed as the parameters of grey recognition of GM(0, m ) and (3) The surface tension, the coefficient of viscosity and the density can be taken as the factors of forecasting of the rates of vapour and dissolution of spilled oils during weathering.