受水库影响短期洪水预报方法分析

Analysis on Short-term Flood Forecast Method Affected by Reservoir

通过汤旺河支流伊春河伊春站短期洪水预报过程实例,提出了针对水库对下游水文断面洪水预报精度的影响及具体解决方法。根据影响因素的综合分析情况,从水文比拟法和预报模型法两个方面来对该站原预报方案进行改进,经实例检验,预报结果精度满足相关规范要求。

Based on the short-term flood forecast example at Yinchu Station, Yichun River, which is a branch of tile Tangwang River, a concrete solution is brought about for the flood forecast accuracy in the downstream section affected by reservoir. According to the comprehensive analysis of affecting factors, the original forecasting scheme of the station is improved former two aspects by using hydrological ratio method and forecasting model. Through the example verification, forecasting results meet the requirements of the relating specifications.