黄河三角洲冬半年大风预报系统

The Objective and Automatic System of the Winter Gale Forecast in the Yellow River Delta

利用 1 990～ 1 997年高空实况场资料作历史样本库 ,进行相关分析 ,提取典型因子场 ,在运用历史样本进行分型、分级的基础上 ,再利用与 T1 0 6 L 1 9数值预报产品典型因子场的平均域块距离最优相似方法 ,制作黄河三角洲冬半年沿海、内陆大风客观预报 ,经试用效果较好。

A correlation analysis was conducted by using of the historical samples of the routine synoptic maps in winter from 1990 to 1997.The canonical factor fields were selected.The historical samples were used to make model and classification,then the NWP of T106L19 and the average field block distance optimum analogue method were combined to forecast the winter gale in the Yellow River Delta.The objective and automatic system of gale forecast was presented.