双重结构与俄罗斯地区一体化战略

Dual Structure and Its Implications for Russia's Regional Integration Strategy

俄罗斯是后苏联空间的地区主导国,把握俄罗斯的地区一体化战略对于判断整个后苏联空间的一体化前景具有重要意义。如何解释俄罗斯地区一体化战略的变化是核心问题。作者认为,作为大国的俄罗斯受到"一超多强"的体系结构和"一强多弱"的地区结构的共同影响,且每种结构的特点均体现在物质性结构和社会性结构两个方面。双重结构的不同变动趋势产生了不同程度的结构激励,并由此影响了俄罗斯地区一体化战略的意愿和实施方式。作者构建了一个分析双重结构影响的框架,在简单验证的基础上,重点讨论了普京在2011年高调提出的"欧亚联盟"方案,发现提出的分析框架能够对这一地区一体化战略的缘起提供合理有力的解释。如果体系结构和地区结构的状况变为不利,将削弱俄罗斯的意愿,该战略也将前景黯淡。作者认为分析大国的地区一体化战略,必须考虑双重结构的作用,从体系结构和地区结构两方面来审视,偏废任何一方面都会导致研究结果的偏差。

This paper seeks to explain and analyze the changes in Russia's regional integration strategy as the core issue.The author believes that being a great power,Russia is influenced by 'one super power and many great powers' global structure and 'one strong several weaks' regional structure,both structures' special characteristics are equally reflected in the material and social structures.This paper constructs an analytical frame work for studying the dual structure's impact,and on the basis of simple validation,focuses on ' Eurasian Union' proposal put forward by Putin in2011,and finds the genesis of the regional integration strategy.The author points out that the prospects of that strategy would become dim as the aspiration of Russia would be weakened if the status of global structure and regional structure became disadvantageous.The author concludes that an analysis of a great power's regional integration strategy must take into account the effects of the dual structure,namely,the global and regional structure,and emphasizing or only focusing on one structure at the expense of the other will lead to biased research results.