中国区域防震减灾能力的综合评估

COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTION AND DISASTER REDUCTION ABILITY OF CHINA

以科学认识中国防震减灾能力的区域差异,实现中国防震减灾资源的合理配置为目标,从绝对和相对2个层面分析了区域防震减灾能力的内涵,进而构建了围绕1个目标层,设定3个准则层、13个指标层和16个变量层的区域绝对防震减灾能力的评价指标体系;分别提出了区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力的评估模型,并绘制了中国区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力分布图。结果表明,中国区域绝对和相对防震减灾能力都存在着明显的区域差异,前者与后者之间的分布特征也是截然不同的,即绝对能力表现为东部地区普遍高于全国平均能力水平,中部和西北部地区大多持平或低于全国平均能力水平,青藏高原地区最低;而相对能力则表现为能力低值区集中分布于华北、南北地震带、东南沿海和东北平原等地。

Aimed to scientifically allocate the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources, this paper firstly analyzes the definition of regional earthquake prevention and disaster reduction ability of China from the absolute and relative two levels： The former is a regional function to prevent from earthquake attacking and to reduce disaster losses which are determined by the region＇s various characteristics such as natural, economic, social and culture conditions, while the latter, based on the former, is the disaster-reduction capacities according to the earthquake disaster loss. Then, the paper constructs the evaluation index system for the absolute ability of China, which includes one object layer, three rule layers, thirteen factor layers and sixteen variable layers. Finally, the study puts forward the comprehensive assessment of absolute ability and relative ability and draws the contribution maps of them. The result shows that there are obvious regional differences of both the absolute ability and the relative ability in China. Meanwhile, there exist obvious regional differences between them. The former shows that the ability in eastern region is generally higher than the national average ability, the central and northwestern areas are equal or lower than it, and Tibetan plateau region is the lowest, which is closely related with the distribution characteristics of different regional economic development levels. While for the latter, either in terms of relative ability against the earthquake deaths or relative ability against earthquake economic loss, the low value areas are concentrated in the North China plain, north-south seismic belt, southeast coast and Northeast China plain ,which is mainly determined by the matching pattern between the absolute capabilities and the future earthquake damage.