俄罗斯科研人才队伍整体评价与发展展望

科研人才数量是衡量一个国家科技总体实力的重要指标,苏联解体以来俄罗斯的科研人才数量逐年萎缩,正在逐渐丧失科技强国地位。造成该结果的主要原因是:俄罗斯经济整体衰退、依赖能源产业的经济结构、科技对经济成长较低的贡献率和人口的自然减员。俄罗斯政府为挽救国家科研人才流失采取了诸多具体举措,包括增加对科研的投入。回归模型显示:2012年俄罗斯科研人才的减少达到转折点,此后随着俄罗斯政府科研投入的增加,俄罗斯科研人才总量将缓慢回升,预测在2020年科研人才的总量将达到略低于2004年的水平。

The number of research talents is an important indicator of a country＇s overall strength in science and technology. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian research lents are on the decrease each year, gradually losing its power status in technology. The main reasons include that, first, the Russian economy as a whole was mired in recession, second, its economic structure dependent on energy industry, third, a rather low contribution rate of science and technology to the economic growth, and fourth the naturally decreasing population. The Russian government has taken many concrete initiatives to protect the country from brain drain in science and technology. According to the regression model： in 2012 the decrease of Russian research talents reached a turning point, then with the increasing investments of Russian government in researches, on the whole, Russian research talents will rise slowly. It is predicted that the total amount of research talents in 2020 will be slightly below that in 2004.