摘要
According to field investigation and interpretation of remote sensing images,the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is a Holocene dextral strike-slip fault with a small amount of normal faulting.Based on large-scale geological mapping at some typical locations and quantitative geomorphologic deformation measurement and dating analysis,this fault is a Holocene active fault.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 2.2 ~2.5mm / a and vertical slip rate is 0.6mm /a since the late Pleistocene epoch.The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 1.8~3.0mm /a and vertical slip rate is 0.5mm /a since the Holocene epoch.Based on the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is estimated to be 6.32%,0.08%and 0.05%,respectively.Then,a 1.82% probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquake for the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is obtained by setting a weight of 0.28,0.36 and 0.36 to the Poisson model,lognormal model and BPT model,respectively.
According to field investigation and interpretation of remote sensing images, the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is a Holocene dextral strike-slip fault with a small amount of normal faulting. Based on large-scale geological mapping at some typical locations and quantitative geomorphologic deformation measurement and dating analysis, this fault is a Holocene active fault. The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 2. 2 ~ 2.5mm/a and vertical slip rate is 0.6mm/a since the late Pleistocene epoch. The strike-slip rate of the Longling-Ruili fault is 1.8 ~ 3.0mm/a and vertical slip rate is 0.5mm/a since the Holocene epoch. Based on the Poisson model, lognormal model and BPT model, the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is estimated to be 6.32 %, 0.08 % and 0. 05%, respectively. Then, a 1.82% probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquake for the north segment of the Longling-Ruili fault is obtained by setting a weight of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.36 to the Poisson model, lognormal model and BPT model, respectively.
基金
sponsored by the Science and Technology Development Program of Ministry of Railways,PRC(2008G027-B)
Special Program of Deep Exploration Techniques and Experimental Studies of Ministry of Land and Resources,PRC(Sinoprobe-06-04)
