摘要
According to the results of estimation of the maximum potential earthquake in the project of "The Active Fault Detection and Seismic Risk Evaluation( Phase II) of Zhengzhou City",the near east-west trending Laoyachen fault and Shangjie fault are developed in the urban area.The Laoyachen fault was not active in the Quaternary,but the Shangjie fault may have the potential of generating M5.0~5.5 earthquakes.In order to get the probability of occurrence of maximum potential earthquakes,we delineate the statistical areas and the potential source areas and calculate the seismicity parameters and the space distribution functions.Our study shows that the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M≥5.0 on the faults in Zhengzhou city is 6% in the next 50 years and 11% in the next 100years.
According to the results of estimation of the maximum potential earthquake in the project of ＂The Active Fault Detection and Seismic Risk Evaluation （Phase H） of Zhengzhou City＂, the near east-west trending Laoyachen fault and Shangjie fault are developed in the urban area. The Laoyachen fault was not active in the Quaternary, but the Shangjie fault may have the potential of generating M5.0 - 5.5 earthquakes. In order to get the probability of occurrence of maximum potential earthquakes, we delineate the statistical areas and the potential source areas and calculate the seismicity parameters and the space distribution functions. Our study shows that the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M〉 5.0 on the faults in Zhengzhou city is 6% in the next 50 years and 11% in the next 100 years.
基金
sponsored by the Seismic Risk Assessment of Active Fault in Key Monitoring Prevention Area of China
