中国制造业碳排放影响因素灰色关联动态分析

Dynamic Gray Relation Analysis of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions in China's Manufacturing Industry

中国制造业经济总量和碳排放双双增长迅速。本文使用1995-2010年中国制造业相关数据,采用灰色关联分析方法动态分析了制造业发展程度、产业结构、能源结构、能源强度、城镇化率和研发强度等6个因素对中国制造业碳排放的影响程度。主要结论为:中国制造业CO2边际排放波动上升;城镇化率和产业结构是对制造业碳排放影响程度最大的两个因素,其次是能源结构、能源强度和发展程度;从时序来看,城镇化率、能源强度和发展程度对碳排放的影响逐渐增强,而产业结构和能源结构的影响比较稳定;研发强度对碳排放的影响不明显。以上结论为我国制定和完善节能减排政策提供了参考依据。

The scale and carbon emissions in China＇s manufacturing industry increase rapidly. Using the da- ta from China＇s manufacturing industry during 1995 to 2010 and the gray relation analysis method, this paper studied the influence of six factors on the carbon emissions of China＇s manufacturing industry inclu- ding the scale of manufacturing industry, industrial structure, energy structure, energy intensity, the ur- banization rate, and R＆D intensity. The result shows that China＇s manufacturing CO2 marginal emissions increase in fluctuations, urbanization rate and industrial structure are the two major factors followed by en- ergy structure, energy intensity and degree of development. From a chronological point of view, the ur- banization rate and energy intensity and manufacturing＇s scale gradually increased, the industrial structure and energy structure are steady. R^D intensity is insignificant. The conclusions provide a reference for China to save energy and reduce carbon emissions.