流通产业促进我国居民消费影响的实证研究——基于面板数据SUR模型的分析

Empirical Research on Impacts of Circulation Industry on China's Household Consumption——Based on Panel Data SUR Model

文章通过选取1995-2011年我国及各省流通产业与居民消费的相关数据,基于面板数据SUR模型对流通产业促进消费的影响程度及关系进行了实证研究,由于面板数据截面之间存在着可能同期相关,文章利用可以修正相关性的面板数据似不相关回归(SUR)模型对其进行研究。实证研究表明:居民消费与流通产业规模、经营效益、产业环境三者之间存在着长期均衡关系,流通产业规模的扩大、经营效益的提高、产业环境的完善都对居民消费增长有明显的促进作用,此外,从个体截距效应可以看出,我国东中西部地区流通产业发展对居民消费促进作用是存在较大差异的。

Based on the panel data SUR model, this paper selects the data related to circulation industry and household consumption for an empirical study on the impact of circulation industry on consumption and their relationships. As there may be a contemporaneous correlation of the cross section panel data, this paper adopts the panel data ＂seeming unrelated regression＂ （SUR） model which can modify relativities for this research. Empirical research shows that there exists a long run equilibrium among household consumption, circulation industrial scale, operational efficiency and industrial environment. Enlarging the circulation industrial scale, increasing the operational efficiency and improving industrial environment can significantly promote household consumption, bringing about great differences between eastern, central and western regions in China according to individual intercept effect.