商业银行部门、特质性冲击以及中国省际经济增长

Commercial Banking Sector,Idiosyncratic Shocks and China's Economic Growth Across Provinces

本文利用中国126家商业银行、信托公司、租赁公司以及融资公司2002-2012年的主要财务数据,借鉴并采用了"颗粒假说"的理论分析范式,重点考察了中国商业银行部门冲击的实际经济效应。研究发现,样本银行的商业信贷规律服从幂律分布,中国商业银行的信贷波动具有显著的实际经济效应。同时,本文通过对中国商业银行BGR指数的估计,在控制时间效应以及考虑经济会计回归分析中所惯常关注的控制变量的情形下,采用不同的回归技术手段,发现商业银行的BGR指数都在统计意义上显著地影响着中国省际实际经济增长。最后,本文揭示了研究结论的政策启示。

The paper mainly inspects the actual economic effects of the commercial banking sector on the macroeconomic outcome, following the Granular Residual Hypothesis and using the main financial data of China＇s 126 commercial banks, trust companies, leasing companies and financing companies, ranging from 2002 to 2012.The results show that the law of sample bank＇s commercial credit follows Power Law distribution, China＇s commercial bank credit has significant effect of actual economic fluctuations. Meanwhile, based on the calculated or estimated BGR indexes, getting rid of time effect and other control variables which are commonly considered in regression analysis, the paper shows that the idiosyncratic shocks of the commercial banks have the real economic effects on China＇ s provincial growth by various regression techniques. Finally, this paper reveals related policy advice of research conclusions.