国债发行与通货膨胀相关性研究

Research on the Correlation between Treasury Bond Issuance and Inflation

我国在实施积极财政政策过程中，政府主要通过发行国债方式为财政赤字融资。向公众出售国债虽然对基础货币无直接影响，对总需求不会产生明显的影响，但是否导致通货膨胀具有不确定性。本文通过对财政赤字、货币创造与通货膨胀之间的关系进行理论分析后，再把发行国债与通货膨胀进行格兰杰检验，分析表明国债与通货膨胀不存在紧密的因果关系．

In the process of implementation of positive fmancial policies in China, the government fmances mainly by issuing Treasury bonds for the fiscal deficit. Although to sell the bonds to the public has no direct or distinct impact on the base currency or the demand, it is uncertain whether it leads to inflation or not. After analyzing the relationship be- tween fiscal deficit, money creation and inflation theoretically, this paper gives a Granger test to Treasury bond issuance and inflation. The analysis shows that there exists no close causal relationship between Treasury bonds and inflation.