基于多元线性回归模型和灰色理论的山东省用电量预测

Electricity Consumption Forecasting of Shandong Based on Multivariate Linear Regression Model and Gray Theory

在分析影响山东省全社会用电量因素的基础上,应用多元线性回归理论对山东省1990—2012年的经济统计数据进行分析,得到山东省全社会用电量的多元线性回归模型,经过统计学相关检验表明,所获得的模型精确性较高.结合灰色预测法,将GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入和人口总数的预测值作为多元线性回归预测方程的输入,计算出山东省2013—2020年的全社会用电量.分析结果表明,全社会用电量与GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入和人口总数具有高度相关性,用电量在今后一段时期将保持持续增长的态势.

Use multivariate linear regression theory to analyze 1990--2012 economic statistical data in Shandong Province based on the analysis of influence factors of total electricity consumption, the multiple linear regression model of total electricity consumption in Shandong Province is obtained. The statistical correlation test shows that the obtained model accuracy is higher. Combined with gray prediction method, we use the predicted value of GDP, urban per capita disposable income and total population as multiple linear regression equation inputs to calculate the 2013-2020 total electricity consumption in Shandong Province. Prediction results show that the total electricity consumption is highly correlated with GDP,urban per capita disposable income and total population, electricity consumption will keep growing in a period in the future.