社会保障水平调节人口出生率可行性实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Fertility Rate Adjustment Feasibility by the Social Security Level

对我国而言,是否可以依赖社会保障水平来调整人口出生率,以及如何应用社会保障水平来调整人口出生率是一个非常值得研究的课题。本文利用1989—2010年我国社会保障水平和人口出生率的数据,应用格兰杰因果关系检验,得出社会保障水平是人口出生率格兰杰原因判断;结合此判断,建立了自回归分布滞后模型,模型显示社会保障水平提升可有效降低人口出生率,并且在社会保障水平不变前提下,人口出生率将呈现逐年下降的趋势。

To China, whether the Fertility rate can be adjusted through the level of social security, or how adjusted has been an important task in research. By applying to the method of Granger causality test between China＇s social security level and Fertility rate data from 1989 to 2010, we come to the result that the social security level is Granger reason for Fertility rate. Combined with this adjustment, the autoregressive distributed lag model is constructed, and the model shows that the level of social security can effectively reduce the Fertility rate and if we keep the level of social security unchanged,the Fertility rate will show a declining trend.