信贷市场扭曲与中国货币政策的有效性--引入非市场化因素的随机动态一般均衡分析

Credit Market Distortions and the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy:Analysis of a Non-free Market Economy with DSGE Models

非市场因素导致的信贷市场扭曲,是阻碍中国货币政策有效实施的重要原因,然而已有的货币政策理论大都忽视了这一点,通常基于完全市场假设建立模型,难以解释中国的现实情形。本文基于DSGE模型,着力刻画了国有、民营企业分别以非市场利率和市场利率获得贷款的非完全市场化经济,在此基础上分析中国货币政策工具对不同经济个体的影响。本文模型较好地拟合了实际经济,尤其是国有和民营企业在经济总体中的相对地位,结果发现:(1)各种货币政策对国企和民企的影响是非对称的,这导致从经济总体上来看,货币政策的执行效果和目标有所脱节;(2)总体而言,中国的货币政策是有效的,扩张的货币政策能在较长期内持续地促进产出,在短期内拉动投资的迅速提高,对于就业和家庭消费有持续的推动作用但力度有限;(3)最有效的货币政策工具,依据政策目标的不同而有所差异。本文的政策建议是,应考虑企业所有制差别对货币政策效果的影响,从而提高政策的针对性和有效性,加强政策间的协调配合。

Credit Market distortions caused by non - market factors, are considered an important reason to hin- der the effective implementation of monetary policy in China. However, based on the free market hypothesis, most of the existing monetary policy theories cannot give a satisfying explanation to China＇s reality. To have a better understand of China＇s monetary policy, this paper portrays a non - free market economy with DSGE mod- el, where the state owned enterprises and the privately owned ones borrow with non - market and market interest rate separately. The model fit the data well, and we find that ： （ 1 ） China＇s monetary policy has different im- pacts on these two types of enterprises, which reduce its effectiveness on the whole economy; （2） the policy is effective generally; （3） but the most effective tool of monetary policy varies across different targets. So the mo- netary authorities should choose preper tools accordingly.