摘要
Previous studies revealed the double-peak mode(DPM)in South China precipitation,corresponding to the two stages in the rainy season,i.e.the first rainy stage(FRS)and the second rainy stage(SRS).But observations in recent two decades show that the DPM has changed to a single-peak mode(SPM).Both the precipitation amount and the heavy rainfall event frequency enhanced significantly in the gap between the FRS and the SRS in 1991–2010,compared to those in 1961–1990.This change can be linked to the effects of the global warming.During the warmer period,the July sea surface temperature over the western Pacific has greater increases than that over the central and eastern Pacific,especially west of 140°E.It may generate more tropical cyclones(TCs)in the inshore areas and then more typhoon rainfall over South China.On the other hand,the increments of the air temperature over the East Asian continent are greater than those of the SST over the western Pacific under the global warming,which enlarges the land-ocean temperature/pressure contrast and leads to a trend of the earlier onset dates of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM)in recent two decades.Then,the earlier ASM will facilitate the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)to retreat earlier from the South China Sea and enhance the convective precipitation in South China between the FRS and the SRS.Also,due to the warmer ocean,the WPSH locates more westward in July,and more moisture will be transported to South China from the southwest side to the WPSTH.All these influences favor a remarkably increasing precipitation in the gap in the warmer period and changes the seasonal cycle from double-peak mode to single-peak mode.
Previous studies revealed the double-peak mode （DPM） in South China precipitation, corresponding to the two stages in the rainy season, i.e. the first rainy stage （FRS） and the second rainy stage （SRS）. But observations in recent two decades show that the DPM has changed to a single-peak mode （SPM）. Both the precipitation amount and the heavy rainfall event frequency enhanced significantly in the gap between the FRS and the SRS in 1991-2010, compared to those in 1961-1990. This change can be linked to the effects of the global warming. During the warmer period, the July sea surface temperature over the western Pacific has greater increases than that over the central and eastern Pacific, especially west of 140~E. It may generate more tropical cyclones （TCs） in the inshore areas and then more typhoon rainfall over South China. On the other hand, the increments of the air tempera- ture over the East Asian continent are greater than those of the SST over the western Pacific under the global warming, which enlarges the land-ocean temperature/pressure contrast and leads to a trend of the earlier onset dates of the Asian summer monsoon （ASM） in recent two decades. Then, the earlier ASM will facilitate the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） to retreat earlier from the South China Sea and enhance the convective precipitation in South China between the FRS and the SRS. Also, due to the warmer ocean, the WPSH locates more westward in July, and more moisture will be transported to South China from the south- west side to the WPSTH. All these influences favor a remarkably increasing precipitation in the gap in the warmer period and changes the seasonal cycle from double-peak mode to single-peak mode.
基金
supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB417205 and 2013CB430203)
the International Cooperation Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2009DFA23010)
the Special Research Fund (Meteorology) of Public Welfare Project (GYHY201306033)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41005037)
