货币供给、通货膨胀和粮食价格波动互动关系研究

Research on the Interaction among Money Supply,Inflation and the Food Price Volatility

在VAR模型和方差分解基础上,利用1997年以来的月度数据,分析货币供应量、通货膨胀和粮食价格之间的关系。结果显示:通货膨胀对粮食价格有显著影响,存在货币供应量、通货膨胀到粮食价格变动这一传导途径,同时发现通货膨胀有较强的自身惯性,通过抑制粮食价格来控制通货膨胀是无效的。

Based on VAR model and variance decomposition, using the monthly data since 1997, this paper an- alyzes the relation of money supply,inflation and food price. The result shows that inflation has a significant influ- ence on food price and there is the pathway of money supply to inflation to food price volatility. Meanwhile, Inflation has strong inertia from itself and control inflation by controlling food price is invalid.