基于组合预测模型的我国能源需求预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of the Energy Demand in China Based on the Combination Forecasting Model

本文根据预测理论,结合我国历年能源消费的相关数据,分别采用多元线性回归方法、灰色预测、指数模型方法建立我国能源需求的单项预测模型,并对各单项模型的结果进行分析比较和检验,然后采用误差平方和最小法进行权重分配,建立了我国未来能源需求量的组合预测模型,最后,应用该模型对我国未来10年的能源需求量进行预测,结果表明:组合预测的精度要远远优于单项预测;我国未来10年的能源需求仍呈现较快的增长趋势。

Based on the forecasting theory, and related data of our eountry＇s energy consumption, this paper es- tablishes the single forecasting model of our country energy demand respectively by means of multivariate liner re- gression method, gray prediction and index model method, and the results of each model were analyzed and com- pared and tested, then the article established combination forecasting model of our future energy demand by using the minimum method of error square sum to weight distribution. Finally, this paper used model to forecast the ener- gy demand in China for the next 10 years. The results shows that the precision of the combination forecasting model is much greater than the single forecasting model, and the energy demand of our country is still present a faster growth trend in the next 10 years.