如何解析中国房价、股价与宏观经济联动之谜?——基于广义虚拟经济视角的揭示

The Mystery on Housing PriceVolatility, Stock Price Volatility Associated with Macroeconomic Volatility in China? ——Based on the Perspective of Generalized Virtual Economy

利用脉冲响应函数和格兰杰因果检验发现,宏观经济波动与房地产波动走势大体趋近,房价波动与宏观经济波动之间存在正反馈机制;而股价波动对宏观经济波动有较大影响,对经济波动的反向冲击力度更大,周期更长。同时,房价和股价则存在相互作用、保持彼此联动的关系。本文还从广义虚拟视角对该问题做了进一步的探究,分析认为由于股票反应快,对人们瞬时心情影响更大,就会对个体消费和投资的影响更大;而要化解目前房价高涨、房产泡沫不断增大的不良后果,仅靠宏观政策不一定会有效,必须要从消费者的心理、社会文化和消费习惯多方面着眼考虑才能化解该难题。

What kind of association among housing price volatility,stock price volatility and macroeconomic volatility in China？ The paper analyzes their relationship during 1998-2010 in china through the impulse response functions and Granger causality test.The results show that macroeconomic volatility＇stend approach roughly with housing price volatility,There is a positive feedback mechanism between housing price volatility and macroeconomic volatility.Stock price volatility has a greater impact on macroeconomic volatility,greater negative intensity and longer cycle.In addition,housing price interacts with stock price.Meanwhile,Stock price will fluctuate ahead of macro-economy and has important effect.But macro-economy will fluctuate earlier than housing price and has a major impact.