中国能源生产率变化的因素分解——基于DEA的分解框架

Factor Decomposition of Energy Productivity Growth in China:Based on DEA Decomposition Framework

本文采用数据包络分析法,将能源生产率的变化分解为技术效率、技术变化、要素替代等效应。该分解法不同于传统的指数分解法和结构分解法,能够识别要素替代对能源生产率变化的影响。应用以上分解框架对1985-2010年中国能源生产率变化的分解结果表明,技术进步效应是能源生产率增长的主要来源,其次为要素替代效应,技术效率变化的影响较小。然而,能源生产率增长的主要来源具有明显的阶段性差异和省际差异。要素替代效应在能源生产率增长中的作用越来越突出,特别是对经济落后省份的能源生产率增长起到了决定性作用。本文还发现,能源价格扭曲导致了能源稀缺省份的要素替代效应相对较小,而能源富集省份的要素替代效应相对较高的反常现象。

The paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis to decompose the change of energy productivity into change of technical efficiency, technical change, factor substitution effect, etc. The decomposition framework can identify the impact of factor substitution to change of energy productivity, which is different from index decomposition and structural decomposition. The above decomposition framework is used to the analysis on Chinese provincial energy productivity growth factors for the period of 1985-2010. The results show that the determinant of energy productivity growth is technical progress. Factor substitution also has a positive effect on the growth of energy productivity and technical efficiency has a slightly positive effect. However, the determinant of energy productivity growth is variable in stages and provinces. Factor substitution plays an increasingly important role in energy productivity growth, especially for less developed provinces. An anomaly that the factor substitution effects of energy-poor provinces are relative less than that of energy-rich provinces can be interpreted as the price distortion of energy.