资产价格与宏观经济金融系统的稳定性——基于货币量值模型的理论与仿真分析

Asset Price and the Stability in Macroeconomic and Financial System——Theoretical and Simulated Analysis Based on the Monetary Model

通过拓展货币量值模型框架构建多维决定性差分系统模型,并分步骤、分阶段、分类别地解析了资产价格冲击下系统不动点的存在性、唯一性和稳定性的动态变迁路径和速度,在上述理论研究基础上进一步结合中国实际数据进行仿真分析。结果表明,固定资产价格上涨或下跌会使系统最快达到稳态不存在的情形;银行股票价格上涨能够在固定资产价格或(和)企业股票价格上涨的同时延迟系统稳态不存在到来的时间;而银行股票价格下跌会加速系统稳态不存在的到来。

Tiffs paper builds a Multidimensional Deterministic Difference System model based on the monetary model in order to analyze the dynamic changing path and speed of the existence, uniqtmness and stability of the fixed point in system and do the simulation analysis with China＇ s data. The result shows that the fixed asset price＇ s rising or falling would cause the system to the fastest to reach the state in which the stability does not exist; the rise of banking stock price may delay the arrival time of unsteady state while the fall of the banking stock price may accelerate.