灰色系统理论预测家蚕微粒子病流行研究

Study on The Prediction of Prevalence of The Nosema Bombycx Mori Disease With The Grey System

研究系首次应用灰色系统理论 GM(1,1)模型结合 MINTAB统计软件包编程计算预测广东家蚕原种 1980～ 2 0 0 1年及普通种 1983～ 2 0 0 1年的微粒子病发生情况。图 1,表 3,参 6。

In accordance with the prevalence of the Nosema bombycx mori (N.b) disease of silkworm (Bombycx mori L.)parent eggs' data in a silkworm production farm in Guangdong province in the past 10 years,and the data of prevalence of the N.b disease of the commercial silkworm eggs in Guangdong province,it is predicted the N.b disease prevalence of the silkworm eggs occurring time by using grey system forecast.The prediction of mathematical model is established as : (1) (k+1)=4887 769692e 0 017342k -4806 769692,which predicts the N.b disease prevalence of the parent egg occuring model. It is concluded that the ratio of N.b disease prevalence will exceed 0.02% in 1998, In fact the ratio is 0.05% this year, and probably exceed 0.02% in 1999 and 2001. The model to predict the N.b disease prevalence of the commercial silkworm eggs is (1) (k+1)=6839 400998e 0 0121856k -6756 400998. It is concluded that the ratio of N.b disease prevalence will exceed 1% in 1998. In fact the ratio is 1.15% this year, and probably exceed 1% in 1999 and 2000 and 2001.