货币供应量对房价调控效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Adjustment Effects of Money Supply on House Price

通过建立一个数理模型从供求角度分析了货币供应量对房价的影响,运用向量误差纠正模型与脉冲响应等方法检验了货币供应量对我国房价的调控效应。研究发现,长期货币供应量推动了我国房价上涨,但脉冲响应和方差分解表明货币供应量对房价上涨的推动作用不大;VECM估计表明短期中存在着调整房价向其长期均衡水平回归的动态机制。

This paper analyzes the influence of money supply on house price by employing a mathematical model in the view of de mand and supply, and then empirically studies the adjustment effects of money supply on Chinese house price with some econometric methods such as Vector Error Correction model and impulse responses etc. The results show that： money supply has driven house price in the long run, and the analysis of impulse responses and variance decomposition shows that the devotion of money supply to house price is little ： the estimation of VECM shows that house nrice h＆q a dynamic self- adjusted mechanism in the short run.