长江上游“12·7”洪水特征预报分析

Analysis on characteristics and forecasting of "12.7" Flood in upper Yangtze River Basin

2012年7月下旬长江上游出现一次强降雨过程,长江宜宾至长寿段全线超保证水位,其中,长江朱沱站出现1954年建站以来的最大洪水,洪峰流量达56 500 m3/s;长江寸滩站出现仅次于1981年的大洪水,洪峰流量达67 300 m3/s。介绍了此次洪水的发展过程和洪峰流量组成,参考洪水量级类似的"91·8"洪水和"10·7"洪水,通过洪水实况比较,对2012年长江上游最大洪水和特征及预报进行了分析,针对目前还存在的问题提出了建议,为以后的洪水预报提供借鉴,以便更好地服务于长江防汛和三峡水库调度。

In late July of 2012, a strong rainfall happened in the upper Yangtze River Basin, the levels from reach of Yibin to Changshou were over the flood assurance levels, in which, the largest flood since 1954 occurred at Zhutuo Hydrological Station with the flood peak discharge of 56 500 m3/s, and the second largest flood only below that in 1981 occurred at Cuntan Hydrologi- cal Station with the flood peak of 67 300 m3/s. The rainfall process and peak flow composition of this flood is introduced. By ref- erencing and comparing similar magnitude floods of ＂91.8＂ and ＂ 10.7＂ , the characteristics and forecast of this flood are analyzed in detail. In the light of the existing problems, some suggestions are put forward to provide reference for flood forecast in future and service for flood control and TGP reservoir regulation.