北京入境旅游市场景气指数研究——基于国际货物贸易和入境旅游的关系

Research of Prosperity Index of Beijing's Inbound Tourism Market:Based on the Theories Concerning Relation between International Cargo Trade and Inbound Tourism

景气指数是识别和预测经济波动、经济周期的重要指标。本文从国际货物贸易与入境旅游的相关关系理论出发,应用合成指数方法构建了基于增长率循环的北京入境旅游市场景气指数。研究表明,先行合成指数能很好地预测一致合成指数的趋势变化,但同时突发事件会导致一致合成指数背离先行合成指数的变化趋势。在此基础上,本文提出了进一步的研究方向。

Prosperity index is a crucial standard to identify and predict economic wave and economy period. This paper constitutes prosperity index of inbound tourism market of Beijing based on increase rate cycle. Starting with the theories concerning relation between international cargo trade and inbound tourism, the paper applies the methods of composite index. Research indicates that leading index provides proper prediction of the tendency change of coincident index, though occasional event may cause coincident index to deviate from leading index. Further research is indicated in this paper on the above study.