水下目标结构在水下爆炸作用下的失效概率分析

Failure probability analysis of underwater target structure subjected to underwater explosion

为研究水下爆炸载荷作用下某水下目标结构的可靠性,通过开展多组试验获得了真实可靠的样本数据,在考虑爆炸源、传播介质和结构特性等因素的基础上选用输入变量和响应变量,进而利用回归方法构建输入变量和响应变量之间的预测模型。然后利用蒙特卡洛模拟法对结构进行可靠性分析,得到了爆炸点在平面内变化时结构的失效概率曲线和等可靠度曲线,为水下结构抗爆标准规范的建立提供了依据。

In order to study the reliability of underwater target structure subjected to underwater explosion, reliable sample data were obtained through many groups of experiments. The input variables and the re sponse variables were taken into account from the aspects of explosion source, transmission medium and structure characteristics. Regression method was presented to fit to these samples and the approximate ana lytic expressions were achieved between the input variables and the response variables. The structure reli ability could be calculated based on the Monte Carlo method. Results show that the failure probability of target structure with explosion centre changing and reliability contours can be displayed. This method pro vides reference for the establishment of anti-explosion standards of the underwater structure.