部分概率权重矩在洪水频率分布参数估计中的应用

Application of partial probability weighted moments for estimating parameters of flood frequency distribution

【目的】研究低删失样本部分概率权重矩在洪水频率分布参数估计中的应用。【方法】选取广义极值分布为总体分布线型,利用MATLAB编程实现参数数值求解,采用统计试验研究估计量统计特性,并以陕北地区主要水文站年最大洪峰流量系列为例进行频率分析。【结果】部分概率权重矩法在高分位数估计方面呈现出良好的有效性,在4种拟合效果评价标准下,删失样本下界F0=0.2时理论分布对大多数测站的洪水资料有较好的拟合效果。【结论】部分概率权重矩法可作为陕北地区洪水频率分布参数的估计方法,并可应用于以推求大重现期设计洪水为目的的洪水频率分析。

[Objective] This based on partial probability wei achieve numerical solution of pa study investigated the parameter estimation of flood frequency distribution ghted mo rameters ments （PPWM）. [Methodl MATLAB programs wer of the generalized extreme value distribution （GEV） WM. Monte Carlo experiments of PPWM were performed to study the statistic p the application was made to estimating parameters of annual maximum floods gauging stations in northern Shaanxi. [Result] PPWM method had good effectiv matron in nort can be quency Using four goodness-of-fit assess hern Shaanxi well when the value o used for estimating parameters of f e used to from PP roperties of estimates. And peak flow series of eness in high quantile estl lood frequency distribution in northern Shaanxi,and in flood fre oods that have long return period.