基于资产负债表的中国宏观政策选择研究

Research on the Choice of Chinese Macro- policy based on Balance Sheet

一国采取什么样的宏观政策和这个国家的资产负债表状况密切相关。2002至2011年中国国家资产负债表总体状况良好,政府的狭义负债率、广义负债率都低于国际警戒线。尽管中国广义负债率水平不断提高,但仍然不超过50%,这决定了未来中国宏观政策的选择是适度扩张的财政政策、中性的货币政策。其中,扩张性财政要从政府投资为主,转向以补贴和减税为主,并减持国有股份以充实社会保险基金;中性货币政策以加强对银行监管和控制风险为主,同时加快人民币国际化、扩大对外投资,控制扩张财政带来的通货膨胀。

What kind of macro- policy is taken is related to a country＇s balance sheet situation. From 2002 to 2011, China＇s national balance sheet is in good condition, and special and general debt ratios of government are lower than the international warning line. Despite China＇s general debt ratio rises continuously, but still no more than 50%, which determines that the choice of China＇s future macroeconomic policy is moderately expansionary fiscal policies, neutral monetary policy. Among them, the expansionary fiscal should shift from government investment to subsidies and tax reduction, and in the meantime reduce State - owned shares to enrich the social insurance fund; neutral monetary policy should be used to strengthen banking supervision and control risk, while to accelerate internationalization of RMB, and to expand foreign investment, and to control inflation brought about by expansionary fiscal policy.