底水油藏直井含水上升预测新方法的建立

A new method for water cut rising forecasting of vertical wells in bottom water reservoir

底水锥进是影响底水油藏开发效果的重要因素。综合考虑各种影响因素,基于详细理论研究与分析,利用某油藏生产数据建立了底水油藏的数值模型,并应用数值模拟结果中的累积产油、产水和产液量计算俞启泰水驱特征变化曲线,得出反映直井含水变化规律的参数b值。确定b值为响应值,运用响应曲面实验设计分析方法研究不同因素对b值的影响,最后建立主要影响因素与b值的关系式,结合俞启泰曲线b值图版,得到了预测底水油藏直井含水变化规律的回归曲线-图版法。应用此图版法对海上某油田H12井含水率进行了预测,并与实际生产数据对比,认为此方法可作为预测底水油藏直井含水率变化规律的一种有效方法。

Bottom water coning is an important factor affecting reservoir development effect. Based on the theoretical investigation, numerical model of bottom water reservoir is established. The accumulate oil production, water production and fluid production rate from the numerical simulation result were applied to calculate Yu Qitai water drive characteristic curve, and parameter b which can reflect water cut change in vertical wells was obtained. We used the response surface experimental design analysis method to study the effect of different factors on b value, and established the relation formula between the main influencing factor and b value. According to Yu Qitai curve b chart, the regression curve and chart method for forecasting water cut change rule of vertical wells in bottom water reservoir was obtained. This chart method was used in H12 well in an oilfield, the results prove the veracity. So this method is effective for forecasting water cut change rule of vertical wells in bottom water reservoir.