中国商品住宅价格省际差异的决定因素——基于货币数量论的实证研究

Determinants of the Spacial Difference of Chinese Commodity Housing Price:An Empirical Study Based on the Quantity Theory of Money

利用货币数量论对我国商品住宅价格省际差异的决定因素进行理论分析,基于理论分析提出关于我国商品住宅价格空间差异决定因素及其决定机制的若干理论假设,然后采集2010年全国各省级行政区的房地产市场数据对理论假设进行了计量经济学检验,实证检验结果与理论预期完全一致,即我国各省商品住宅价格与该省城镇居民可支配收入、住宅抵押贷款余额增量高度空间正相关,与其商品住宅供应面积高度空间负相关。研究结论与利用传统S-D模式分析商品住宅价格的空间差异所得到的结论具有高度的逻辑一致性。

This essay analyses the determinants of the spacial difference of Chinese commodity hous- ing price based on the Quantity Theory of Money, puts forward several theoretical hypotheses and tests the hypotheses econometrieally by the provincial real estate market data of 2010. The empirical results are in accord with theoretical expectations completely. Chinese commodity housing price is highly positively relevant to disposable income of urban residents, residential mortgage loans incre- ment and highly negatively relevant to the supply area of commodity housing spatially. The conclu- sion is logically consistent with the conclusion drawn from the analysis by the traditional S-D model.