我国入境旅游需求影响因素的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Chinese Inbound Tourism Demand

随着国际旅游的迅速发展，入境旅游需求逐渐成为学术界研究的热点领域。利用1995-2．01O年14个客源国的相关数据，建立我国入境旅游需求与旅游价格、客源国人均收入、闲暇时间、失业率和特殊事件等变量之间的双对数线性回归模型，并进行了实证分析。研究结果表明客源国的人均收入水平和闲暇时间是影响我国入境旅游需求的关键因素，失业率、旅游价格和特殊事件等因素也具有明显影响，但影响程度依次减弱。值得注意的是，对于部分客源国，旅游价格与其来华旅游需求表现出显著的正向关系。最后，基于对需求弹性的深入分析，为我国旅游管理部门和旅游企业提供了较可靠的决策依据。

With the rapid development of international tourism, inbound tourism gradually becomes the academic focus of attention. This paper selects statistics of 14 foreign guest countries from 1995 to 2010 and builds up a double-log linear regression model, which depends on the relationship between the inbound tourism demand of our country and guest countries＇ per-capital income, leisure time, unemployment rate and special events. Based on the model above, the empirical research is conducted, which indicates per-capital income and leisure time are the most important influencing factors in determining the demand for inbound tourism. Unemployment rate, tourism price and special events also play significant role, but the strength of their influence weakens in turn. It is noteworthy that the tourism price in our country shows strong and positive effects on inbound tourism demand with some guest countries. Finally, with the deep analysis of demand elasticity, some helpful suggestions for the tourism decision-making administration and corporations are proposed.