保障性住房对商品房价格的影响研究——基于供需结合的视角

Research on the Influence on Commercial Housing Price from Affordable Housing——Based on the Perspective of Supply and Demand Combination

构建了"刚性需求吸收"和"土地挤出"的代理变量,建立了保障性住房对商品房价格影响的VAR模型。滞后4阶的自回归结果和脉冲响应结果显示:土地挤出量对商品房价格确有正向影响;刚性需求吸收量对商品房价格确有负向影响;二者都与商品房价格存在Granger因果关系;在短期内,刚性需求吸收对商品房价的平抑作用更显著;长远来看,土地挤占对商品房价格的提升作用比刚性需求吸收导致的抑制作用更持久。

This paper builds the proxy variable of ＇ rigid demand absorption＇ and ＇ land extrusion＇ , and builds a VAR model. The auto-regression results with 4-order lag and the impulse response. The result shows that： land extrusion can truly raise the price of commercial housing; rigid demand absorption can truly reduce the price of commercial housing; both of them are the Granger relationships; in the short time, the effect from rigid demand absorption is severer than that from land extrusion, but in the long run, the effect from land extrusion is severer than that from rigid demand absorption instead.