中国周边战略与朝鲜半岛统一前景

China's Strategy toward Neighbor Countries and Regions and Unification Future of Korean Peninsula

中国新政府重视周边的外交战略逐渐显现。中国的外交重点正在向周边国家和地区倾斜。这对朝鲜半岛的前景以及朝核问题的进程都将产生重大影响,主要表现在三个方面:一、中国将加大对朝鲜的政治影响和经济帮助,中朝关系更加紧密而不是相反;二、朝鲜的极端行为将减少,半岛局势进一步缓和;三、中国与相关大国围绕朝核问题的协商与协调将不断增加。与此同时,美国因素在半岛进程中的影响呈现下降的趋势,半岛议题将从安全领域逐渐向经济领域过渡。在上述条件都成为现实的情况下,讨论朝鲜半岛和平统一才具有可能性和可行性。半岛的统一应该具有和平性、对称性、自发性、渐进性等特征。

Chinese government is paying more attention on surrounding affairs, and the diplomatic focus is shifting from developed countries to neighbor countries and surrounding regions. This tendency will apparently effect the situation on Korean peninsula and the process of North Korea nuclear issue in three aspects ： China will exercise more political influence and more economic help on North Korea; North Korea will restrain itself in provocative ac- tions ; China will make more efforts to coordinate with other related countries. Meanwhile, the influence of Ameri-can factor on Korean peninsula affairs is decreasing. Consequently, the key point of Korean peninsula will shift from security topic to economic field. If conditions above are given, the unification of Korean peninsula is feasible. The way for unification of Korean peninsula should be peaceful, initiative, symmetrical and gradual.