海底管道泄漏的事件树和故障树相结合分析

Using the method of event tree and fault tree analysis subsea pipeline leak

海底管道一旦发生泄漏,危害很大,为了分析其引起的不同后果,建立了海底管道系统泄漏事件树模型。根据事件树和故障树各自不同的特点,提出了将两者结合运用的方法。将故障树分析应用到已构建好的事件树中,通过故障树的定量分析求出事件树中初因事件和后续事件的发生概率,最终实现事件树的定量分析,得出各后果事件的发生概率。从而得到一个完整的海底管道泄漏危害分析的方法。

Once the submarine pipeline leakage, its harm is very big, in order to analysis of different consequences caused by leakage,we established the submarine pipeline system leak event tree model.According to the different characteristics of the event trees and fault trees, in the proposed method will be a combination of these.Applying fault tree analysis to the event tree has been built,Through the quantitative analysis of fault tree and obtain the prob- ability of initiating event and the subsequent events in the event tree, achieved the quantita-tive analysis of event tree, it is concluded that the consequences of event probability.Conse-quently,to get a complete method of submarine pipeline leakage hazard analysis.