黑龙江省改进中长期负荷预测方法及应用

Improved medium and long- term load forecasting method and its application in Heilongjing

针对传统的弹性系数法、时间序列法以及产业单耗法等在进行中长期负荷预测时预测时间以及预测精度上的不足,利用上述方法分别建立了黑龙江省"十二五"中长期负荷预测的数学模型,并根据黑龙江省的产业结构特点形成新的分产业弹性系数法,最后通过时变权综合预测方法将多种预测方法归一,使其优势互补。通过对历史数据的校核,表明了改进方法较原有方法在预测精度上有较大提高。

Aiming at the disadvantages of the traditional elastic coefficient method, time series method and uint consumption method of industry in time and accuracy of medium and long - term loading forecasting, this paper establishes separately the mathematical models of medium and long - term loading forecasting for Heilongjiang during the 12th five -year plan by the methods mentioned, and works out a new elastic coefficient method for different industries forecasting methods according to the characteristics of through Through the verification of variable weight synthesizing historical data, it is proved industrial structure in Heilongjiang, and unifies several forecasting, making them complementary with each other. that the forecasting accuracy of the improved method is enhanced.