湖北省63家监测医院围产儿神经管缺陷发生率趋势预测

Trend Forecast of the Neural Tube Defects Incidence for 63Hospitals in Hubei Province

目的预测湖北省63家监测医院2012～2013年围产儿神经管缺陷发生率的趋势，为进一步推进神经管缺陷预防工作提供有效信息。方法从湖北省卫生厅获取63家监测医院2003～2011年神经管缺陷发生资料，运用Excel2010预处理数据和描述神经管缺陷发生率随时间的变化，采用DPS数据处理系统，构建神经管缺陷发生率的BP神经网络时间序列预报模型，并进行趋势预测。结果湖北省63家医院的神经管缺陷、无脑畸形、脊柱裂、脑膨出发生率将会分别从2011年的7．2／万、3．3／万、2．7／万、1．2／万上升到2013年的9．8／万、4．2／万、3．7／万、1．9／万。结论湖北省63家医院2012～2013年神经管缺陷发生率有升高的趋势。

Objectives To forecast the trend of the neural tube defects （NTDs） incidence for 63 hospitals in Hubei province in year of 2003~2011, and to provide useful information for futhrer pushing on the work of NTDs preven- tion. Methods The NTDs incidence for 63 hospitals from 2003 to 2011 was collected from Health Department of Huhei province, Microsoft Office Excel 2010 was used to preprocess data and describe the variation of NTDs inci- dence with time. DPS was used to create the time series forecasting model of BP neural network and conduct trend forecast for NTDs incidence. Results The incidence of NTDs, anencephaly, apina bifida and encephalocele for 63 hospitals in Hubei province would rise from 0. 72%0, 0.33%0, 0.27%, and 0. 12~0 in 2011 to 0. 98%0, 0.42%, 0.37% and 0.19% in 2013 respectively. Conclusions The NTDs incidence for 63 hospitals in Hubei province has the treand of increasing from 2012 to 2013.