基于ANP和灰色聚类法的国际铁路EPC项目风险评价研究

Research for Risk Assessment of EPC Project of International Railway Based on ANP and Gray Clustering Evaluation

中国工程承包企业在走向国际承担铁路EPC工程项目时,应当更科学合理地进行项目事前风险评价,以提高决策正确性。通过分析研究国际铁路EPC项目的特点,识别出项目中存在的风险因素和风险指标,并构建出风险评价指标体系。采用网络层次分析法(ANP)对风险指标间关系进行分析并建立风险评价模型,计算出国际铁路EPC项目风险指标权重,利用灰色聚类评价法对风险指标进行评分,通过对评分进行灰色聚类得出项目的综合风险等级。并结合迪阿铁路项目进行风险实证分析,从而为企业进行类似项目风险管理和科学决策提供参考。

In order to improve international general contracting enterprises of China to be more scientific and reasonable to evaluate risk in advance and improve the exactness of decision when undertaking railway EPC projects, the paper identifies the risk factors and indicators existing in the project, and constructs the index system for risk assessment, by analyzing the characteristics of international railway EPC projects. The weight of each risk indicator is calculated after the analysis of relationship between indicators of risk with ANP and the construction of risk assessment model. Then the risk indicators are scored with the method of gray clustering evaluation, and concludes the comprehensive level of risk by clustering scores. The empirical analysis of risk can provide basis of risk management and scientific decision-making for similar projects.