基于在险价值的房地产项目组合管理的风险平衡研究

Research on Project Portfolio Management Balancing in Real Estate Enterprise Based on RoVaR and C-ROVaR

对房地产企业而言,在多项目管理的环境中,有效的项目组合管理对企业工程项目管理有着关键性的作用。引入实物期权来衡量房地产项目在投资决策阶段的价值,用蒙特卡洛模拟得出项目实物期权价值的概率分布;并引入风险价值的概念,在VaR、CVaR的基础上,针对项目的实物期权价值提出了在险实物期权价值、条件在险实物期权价值(RoVaR和C-RoVaR)来衡量房地产项目的风险。建立了项目组合平衡模型,用来描述合适的潜在投资项目来平衡目前项目组合的风险,对投资决策提供支持,同时概括了项目组合平衡的基本步骤。

In the environment of multiple projects, effective project portfolio management has a key role to achieve successful project management in the real estate enterprise. At first step is the introduction of the real option concept to measure the value of the real estate projects in the investment decision stage, and simulate the probability distribution of the real option value of project by Monte Carlo： Then is the introduction of the concept of risk value, for the project real option value and put forward the real option value at risk （RoVaR）, conditions real option value at risk （C-RoVaR）to measure the risk of project. Based on these, project portfolio balance model is established to find suitable potential investment projects to balance the current project portfolio risk, and support the investment decision： finally the basic steps of project portfolio balance is summarized.