中国经济转型的结构性特征、风险与效率提升路径

Structural Features of China's Economic Transition,Risks and the Efficiency Promoting Path

基于拓展的增长核算框架,本文对中国经济转型的结构性特征及有关问题进行了探讨,结论是:(1)中国经济增长有六个结构性特征:人口结构转型,生产率的产业再分布,收入分配调整,城市化率提高,资本效率递减,全要素生产率改进空间狭窄,这些因素的共同作用可能使增长减速。(2)中国经济转型面临的风险是:收入分配格局再调整导致的减速风险;过度无效投资;经济杠杆率持续拉升;产业结构服务化导致的过快减速风险。(3)为应对中国经济增长减速的潜在风险,资本效率提高是政策着力点,低效率企业出清机制的建立及相应制度改革深化,是未来经济稳健增长的必由之路。

Based on the expanding framework of growth accounting, this study probes into the structural features of China＇ s economic transition and the conclusions are as follows： （1） There are six characteristics leading China＇ s economic growth slowdown in the future i.e. the demographic transition, the productivity redistribution among industries, the adjustment of income distribution, the accelerating of urbanization process, the declining of capital efficiency, and the narrow room for TFP improvement. （2） There are four kinds of risk in the course of China＇ s economic transition i.e. the readjustment of income distribution results in economic slowdown quickly, so does the risks such as undue ineffective investment, the high economic lever ratio, and the service-trend of industrial structure. （3） In order to deal with the risks of slowdown, economic policies should focus on the capital efficiency promoting. So, the basic conclusion is introducing market clearing to keep up economic growing stably.