灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在手足口病发病预测中的应用

Application of grey system GM(1, 1) model on trend forecast of hand, foot and mouth disease

目的预测2013—2014年昆山市手足口病疫情变化趋势,为手足口病防控提供科学依据。方法采用2008—2012年昆山市手足口病的发病率作为原始数据,利用GM灰色模型,建立数学模型,预测手足口病发病趋势。结果基于2008—2012年昆山市手足口病发病率,运用模型计算出2012—2014年手足口病发病率为49.54/10万、27.21/10万、22.28/10万,实际2012年手足口病的发病率为55.88/10万,相对误差的绝对值为11.34%,拟合预测精度为89.17%。结论通过手足口病发病率预测模型,推算出的我市手足口病发病率的实际值和预测值基本吻合,拟合较好。

Objective To forecast the epidemic trend of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Kunshan City from 2013 to 2014, so as to provide the scientific evidence regarding the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods According to the HFMD incidence rates in Kunshan City from 2008 to 2012, a forecasting model of I-IFMD incidence was built with grey system to predict the epidemic trend of HFMD. Results The predicted incidence rate was 49.54/100 000 in 2012, 27.21/100 000 in 2013 and 22.28/100 000 in 2014, respectively. The absolute value of relative errors between the predictive and actual values （55.88/100 000 in 2012） of HFMD incidence was 11.34%, and the prediction accuracy was 89.17 %. Conclusions The predicted values achieved from the forecasting model agree well with the actual values of HFMD incidence. The incidence rate of HFMD might decrease from 2013 to 2014 in Kunshan City.