资源型城市生命周期优化调控潜力测评

MEASURING THE POTENTIALITY OF REGULATION ON THE LIFECYCLE OF RESOURCE-BASED CITY

近年来我国不少资源型城市出现了生态环境急剧恶化、主导资源濒临枯竭和经济持续衰退等一系列重大问题,解决这些问题正成为推动资源型城市可持续发展的关键。本研究基于生命周期理论,分析了城市生命周期,构建资源型城市生命周期优化调控理论模型,采用AHP层次分析法与德尔菲法,构建了资源型城市优化调控潜力测评指标体系。并以我国典型资源型城市大庆为例,测评了其生命周期优化调控潜力。测评结果表明,目前大庆市生命周期正处于优化转型阶段,具有较强的优化调控潜力。最后,从提升发展理念、发展基础、主导动力、核心功能与保障能力等五个方面构建了大庆市生命周期优化调控潜力的提升机制。

In recent years, a lot of problems appeared in many resource-based cities in China, such as the rapid deterioration of ecological environment, the exhaustion of the leading resources, the recession of urban economy, and etc. Therefore, it is essential for these cities to solve the above mentioned problems in order to achieve the sustainable development. Based on the theory of life cycle, a theoretical model is constructed in this paper to optimize and regulate the life cycle of the resource-based cities. In this paper, we argue that： 1） the life cycle of a resource-based city should be divided into four stages, i.e. the starting stage, the rapid development stage, the mature stage and the recession stage.2）Regulation means can be taken to moderately change the development path of life cycle in resource-based cities. 3） the emphasis of the life cycle optimization in resource-based cities should be put on such aspects as the strength of resource exploitation, ecological environment bearing capacity, the leading economic industries, preferential policies and etc. 4）Governments should be the main body of the life circle optimization and regulation in resource-based cities, and the driving forces are mainly from industries, policies and resources. Our study shows that： Daqing is a grade two potential city in the stage of optimization transition with the value of optimization and regulation potentiality being 63.71. In conclusion, a mechanism is proposed in the paper to optimize and regulate the life cycle in Daqing and promote its sustainable development from the following perspectives, such as the promotion of development concept, development basis, driving forces, core functions and supporting capacity.