政府融资和居民消费:基于分位数回归的探讨

Government Financing and Resident Consumption:A Discussion Based on Quantile Regression

本文使用1978年到2011年的宏观数据,在生命周期消费理论基础上,构造了融合个体消费和政府行为的模型,细化探讨了政府融资方式对城乡居民消费的影响。研究使用了分位数回归方法。结论指出,随着分位点由小到大、消费水平从低到高,城乡居民对政府发债、征税和转移支付的消费反应存在异同,并且税债等价不一定成立,财政政策的实施需要细化。

Using macro data from 1978 to 2011, this paper forms a model that combines resident consumption and activities of government together, which is based on life - cycle theory of consumption, and investigates meticulously that how the ways of government financing affect rural resident consumption and urban resident consumption. The research is using Quantile regression method. The result shows that some reactions of resident consumption responsing to government debt, taxes and transfer expenditures in rural areas and in urban areas are really different and some are the same, and tax - debt equivalence is not~ necessarily true. It should be more careful to carry out fiscal policy.