NCEP再分析资料在大气环境预测中的应用

NCEP reanalyzed data used for atmospheric environment prediction

为了给大气环境预测中使用非常规气象资料提供参考依据,基于美国法规空气质量(AERMOD)模式,以2011年哈尔滨常规观测资料、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料构建标准情景和NCEP气象情景,分析NCEP气象情景与标准情景大气污染物预测质量浓度的符合度指数和相对误差.结果表明:NCEP再分析高空资料、云量资料用于大气环境预测与标准情景相比误差小,可以替代同类常规观测数据;而NCEP再分析资料替代地面自动站资料进行大气环境预测误差偏大,不宜采用.

In order to provide reference for using the unconventional meteorological data in environmental prediction,based on AERMOD model,the standard meteorological scenario and NCEP meteorological scenarios were constructed by using the 2011 Harbin station-observed data and NCEP reanalyzed data,and the d index and relative error on pollutant prediction concentration between NCEP meteorological scenarios and standard meteorological scenario were analyzed.The results show that the NCEP high altitude meteorological data,cloud data can be used in atmospheric environment prediction,but the NCEP data cannot replace the ground automatic weather station data for atmospheric environment prediction.