2013年国内新麦市场走势分析及后期展望

Domestic New Wheat Market in 2013 and Its Future Prospect

2013年中国冬小麦产量实现了10连增,国内供应总体充足,但部分地区受生长后期阴雨、大风等不利天气影响,出现减产和小麦品质下降,价格低于国家最低收购价水平,主产区及时启动托市收购预案。在政策支撑以及各市场主体积极入市收购拉动下,小麦价格较快上扬,并持续保持稳中有升态势。全社会新麦收购量及托市收购量较2012年同期减少。当前全国小麦秋冬种全面展开,预计在2013年小麦生产效益普遍好于2012年、大部地区土壤墒情适宜、国家继续提高2014年小麦最低收购价等因素作用下,冬小麦播种面积将基本稳定,但河南、山东等主产省旱情影响不容忽视;4季度是传统消费旺季,小麦价格呈季节性上涨态势,但小麦玉米比价回归正常,饲料用量较2012年大幅减少,加之全年进口将达300万t以上的相对高水平,可缓解优质麦供应偏紧局面,后期小麦价格涨幅不会太大,总体将保持稳中有涨态势。

China＇s winter wheat pledaction increased for a tenth consecutive year in 2013, and domestic supply was overall ample, but wheat production reduced and the quality was low in some areas because of adverse weather in production tail, so price was lower than national minimum p/zrchase price, and major wheat producing regions timely started prop acquisition plan. Supported by the policy and pulled by market subjects＇ actively purchasing, price went up quickly and kept rising steadily. The total quantity of purchase by all kinds of buyers including the government was lower than that of last year. Currently, autumn and winter wheat planting is at full blast in China, and planting area of winter wheat is expected to keep stable under the effect of some factors, such as the 2013 wheat production efficiency is better than last ,year, soil moisture in most areas is suitable, the government continues raising the minimum purchase price for 2014 wheat, but drought in Henan and Shandong provinces should not be ignored. Late wheat price will rise not too high, and overall price will remain steady, although the fourth-quarter is a traditional busy season for consumption, wheat price keeps seasonal rising, while the price parity between wheat and maize returns to normal, substantial reduction in feed consumption occurs in 2013, combined with annual imports will reach more than 3 million ton, a relatively high level, which can alleviate tight supply situation of high quality wheat.